The two leading Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race boats were separated by a lengthy 10 nautical miles on Tuesday night as they close on Flinders Island at the eastern end of Bass Strait but an epic match race is looming.
Five-time line honours winner Wild Oats Xl leads Anthony Bell’s super maxi Investec Loyal by that margin but Investec Loyal holds the advantage because the weather charts show the wind dying off the Tasmanian north-east coast.
According to Wild Oats Xl co-navigator Ian Burns, an anticipated 50-60 nautical mile hole in the wind will enable Investec Loyal, sitting on her hip to the east, to watch and wait to see what happens to her nemesis.
Burns says 10 miles is not a great distance to make up in modern ocean racing.
"They are likely to play a game of cat and mouse. They have plenty of leverage out there," Burns said.
"If ever there was an opportunity in a yacht race, tonight is the night."
He explained that this was because the following boat could see what was going on ahead, take evasive action and sail around the leading boat.
"They will throw everything at us," Burns said, a situation made worse by valuable minutes lost during the day when the race leader hit a sun fish and had to back the boat up to allow the fish to swim off the keel.
A fading south-westerly breeze faces the leading boats during the night, while the rest of the remaining fleet of 83 continues to contend to with headwinds up the NSW coast.
While the two race leaders play games off Flinders Island, the smaller yachts will still be working their way down the New South Wales coast or launching across eastern Bass Strait.
Right now the race for handicap is finely balanced between the biggest boats in the fleet and the more homely 40-footers far behind them. If the super maxis can thread their way down the Tasmanian coast in better air than the forecasts are predicting, they will be very hard to beat on handicap.
Peter Millard and John Honan’s 98 footer Lahana, with her rating advantage over Investec Loyal and Wild Oats XI, is looking particularly threatening.
If the big boats find themselves in the doldrums there will be some cheering from the back of the fleet. It has been a testing race for the front runners, but it has been far tougher for the crews still battling down the mainland coast.
From the time the southerly front first moved through last night to when they break free of the mainland, they will have barged their way through a relentless southerly in a cantankerous seaway.
Five boats have retired, including Grant Wharington’s Wild Thing, which suffered sail damage and headed back to Sydney.
Another casualty was the Sydney boat Duende, which retired after pulling into Bermagui with crewman Tom Wormald suffering a dislocated shoulder.
Also on board is record Hobart racer Tony Cable, competing in his 46th race.
The Hong Kong-based TP52 Ffreefire 52 retired with mainsail damage and headed back to Sydney.