The Southern border battle is among the most famous of all New Zealand provincial rivalries and the 229th instalment promises to be every bit as intense as the other 228.
VENUE & TIME: Carisbrook, Dunedin, Friday August 31, 19.35 NZT.
HEAD TO HEAD: Played 228 – Otago 141, Southland 77, Draws 10.
LAST TIME: August 21, 2007 (Invercargill) – Southland 37-38 Otago.
WALKING WOUNDED: The teams are in reasonable shape this week; Otago loses Chris Smylie but Toby Morland is a more than capable replacement and the rest of the changes are voluntary. Confusion will reign in the media this week as there is a chance of two Ben Smiths taking the field together or one replacing the other – the former Southland and Highlanders wing of that name has recovered from a long-term injury and joins the 2007 New Zealand Colt in the Otago squad. David Hall may return for Southland and the only player missing from last week's gutsy win is lock Daniel Ramsay.
FORM: Middle of the table, middle of the road – that's how these teams can be summed up. Otago is getting a few wins on the board after its awful start but has ground them out rather than cut loose at any time. One suspects the Dark Blues will again look to a precision game based on the forwards and try to take any scoring chances as they turn up, which is almost the same game plan as the Stags will employ. Southland sits four places below Otago as it has had two wins as opposed to three but they have been good efforts against forward-based northern teams. Southland's three losses have all been to teams that sit in the top four at present.
WHO'S HOT: With both teams fashioning steady records through steady methods, few players are showing out for reasons good or bad. Tom Donnelly is an important figure in the Otago pack and Adam Thomson is catching the eye with his powerful running. Charlie Hore is now the key man in Otago's backline and Callum Bruce is relishing the freedom of second-five, while the pair are in sound goal-kicking form; Bruce still hasn't missed this season. Southland has the second-best lineout in the competition and the Stags secure over 90% of their own ball, mainly through accurate throwing and the towering figures of Hoani MacDonald and Josh Bekhuis. Jimmy Cowan is the form player in either team – his defence in particular has been excellent this season – and James Wilson is also in good touch.
WE THINK: This is almost toss a coin stuff, as a good case can be made for either team to go into the match as slight favourites. Maybe because Otago has a better record at pinching the decisions in tight matches than Southland, we're going to pick an Otago win by a few points with Southland getting a consolation point.
TEAMS:
Otago: 1 - Keith Cameron, 2 – Peter Mirrielees, 3 – Chris King, 4 – Ezra Taylor, 5 – Tom Donnelly, 6 – Adam Thomson, 7 – Alando Soakai, 8 – Craig Newby (captain), 9 – Toby Morland, 10 – Charlie Hore, 11 – Matt Saunders, 12 – Callum Bruce, 13 – Brett Mather, 14 – Karne Hesketh, 15 – Ben R. Smith.
Reserves: 16 – Jed Vercoe, 17